Regarded as defensive investments, consumer staples stocks are generally safe bets in choppy markets. The flip side is that they frequently fall behind growth industries when times are good, and this perception became a reality over the past six months as the sector was down 4.4% while the S&P 500 was up 12%.
Investors should tread carefully as the low switching costs for everyday products mean that not all businesses are created equal. With that said, here are three consumer stocks we’re passing on.
Reynolds (REYN)
Market Cap: $4.75 billion
Best known for its aluminum foil, Reynolds (NASDAQ:REYN) is a household products company whose products focus on food storage, cooking, and waste.
Why Are We Bearish on REYN?
- Flat unit sales over the past two years show it’s struggled to move its products and had to rely on price increases
- Sales are projected to be flat over the next 12 months and imply weak demand
- Easily substituted products (and therefore stiff competition) result in an inferior gross margin of 25.2% that must be offset through higher volumes
Reynolds is trading at $22.50 per share, or 14x forward P/E. Dive into our free research report to see why there are better opportunities than REYN.
Procter & Gamble (PG)
Market Cap: $342.9 billion
Founded by candle maker William Procter and soap maker James Gamble, Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) is a consumer products behemoth whose product portfolio spans everything from facial tissues to laundry detergent to feminine care to men’s grooming.
Why Are We Hesitant About PG?
- Absence of organic revenue growth over the past two years suggests it may have to lean into acquisitions to drive its expansion
- Demand will likely be soft over the next 12 months as Wall Street’s estimates imply tepid growth of 1.9%
- Operating margin failed to increase over the last year, indicating the company couldn’t optimize its expenses
At $147.66 per share, Procter & Gamble trades at 20.9x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with PG, check out our full research report (it’s free).
United Natural Foods (UNFI)
Market Cap: $2.69 billion
With a vast network of 55 distribution centers spanning approximately 30 million square feet of warehouse space, United Natural Foods (NYSE:UNFI) is North America's premier grocery wholesaler distributing natural, organic, and conventional products to over 30,000 retail locations across the US and Canada.
Why Do We Think UNFI Will Underperform?
- The company has faced growth challenges as its 1.2% annual revenue increases over the last three years fell short of other consumer staples companies
- Gross margin of 13.4% is an output of its commoditized products
- Earnings per share fell by 20.9% annually over the last three years while its revenue grew, showing its incremental sales were much less profitable
United Natural Foods’s stock price of $44.42 implies a valuation ratio of 14.4x forward P/E. Read our free research report to see why you should think twice about including UNFI in your portfolio.
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